With orders full PCB enterprises more and more, China PCB industry after a storm comes a calm, to the way forward, but industry is really in the spring, recovery, or just under the stimulus of surface phenomenon? In the economic crisis has not yet been completely fade, the world economy has not been completely stabilized, entrepreneurs still should calm thinking, careful to deal with.
In continuously in the us stock market turbulence, corporate profits and economic output, the world economy for sustainable growth seems to be out of reach. While China's economic recovery has become a fact: according to statistics, China's second quarter economic growth was 7.9%, while strong growth in the third quarter is 8.9%, on October 21 at a state council executive meeting, different from the second quarter of cautious, think that the situation of the economic and social development at the beginning of better than expected, reinforced back up to the good trend.
The end of the PCB industry in China are also booming perplexing half a year, since the second quarter to optimism, and return to the same period last year level in the third quarter, forward trend is more obvious.
Are certificates of analysis from all sides, since this year the new products and new market application side, support, and let the PCB market successful recovery and growth. Push hard board, NB factory support Intel dominate the platform, the Smart Phone is still to maintain growth, as well as our country home appliances to the countryside policies on LCD TV market and strong demand for mobile phones in China. Dominate the NB make NB use HDI board ratio increased slightly, HDI technology has helped to raise production capacity plate factory capacity utilization, including China's lenovo and Taiwan's acer, asus, MSI, HP and Dell are launch products listed in the second and the third quarter.
Soft board market after a wave of closures, in little affected by the crisis, in the territory of China has not yet formed a complete industrial chain of soft board, soft board market become weak vane of Taiwan, statistics show that benefit from Apple, HTC, RIM planning to launch new products; Palm to return to the Smart Phone market, as well as the positive push NB substitution of LED backlight, soft plate contrarian growth of 19.8% in the second quarter. The recent Japanese EPTE release real-time communication is also forecast, Asia PCB except Japan will come out to the good development.
Even so, the PCB industry should still calm view the current for the economy to a good predictions and analysis. Not to mention the amazing Chinese economic data can stand up to scrutiny, Chinese independent ability to promote the development of the global economy itself is suspect, after all, China's economy is dependent on manufacturing, and manufacturing depends on consumer demand in the United States, has been the United States is the undisputed global economic locomotive. On the just-concluded davos BBS, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia with digital, global without another group of consumers can replace the consumption amount of the $10 trillion U.S. consumers, and the supply capacity of the most powerful China, their spending power is only a quarter of the United States.
Although there are many facts can prove that, in 2010, the world economic slowdown is expected to get better, but because of the global real economy suffered serious, after recovery of the economy still need some time to adjust. In China, in the first half of this year is 7.1% of GDP by implementation of investment in fixed assets, and bank credit up to 7 trillion yuan, rare in the history of new supply and demand imbalance may result. As prime minister, wen jiabao, said: "the growth of the value of the quantity or growth is this need to solve problems in China."
Moreover, the current Chinese economy and the development of PCB industry boom largely from the 4 trillion national policy to support and pull, but its subsequent power co., LTD. The current domestic consumer confidence also remain at a relatively low level, 12 million of the employment gap also highlights the consumption of building. And policy to stimulate the reaction on the consumption often lags behind, far from the market pull to rapidly, it also need to adjust after a long period of time.
Also, there are companies, according to the national economic stimulus, since most used in 3 g base stations construction belongs to the national investment, indeed has pulled in industry growth, such as ultrasonic electronic, shennan circuits are also influenced by "yi" in the policy. But there is also a 3 g mobile phone use PCB anemic, Banks earlier waves expected 3 g replacement is not as expected, further no earlier from black and white screen mobile phones in color like crazy, and consumer to 3 g is not too cold, is generally believed that the current mobile phone function is more comprehensive, and mistrust of the stability of the electronic product novelty is mostly in a wait state. More news revealed that the huawei has been in research and development of 4 g mobile phone, if successful, the 3 g mobile phone it's likely that just as a transitional term, industry where still dare to have pulled on the industrial development of fantasy?
High in the field of LED, while the LED TV, LED lighting can bring growth opportunities for PCB industry, such as its function in energy conservation and diversification is becoming more and more accepted by the market and consumers, however, the development of Chinese LED is not smooth, also belong to the "luxury" for the short term the LED products, the promotion still exist many difficulties of large area, like the lack of core technology, the price is high, the lack of the protection of technical standards, to get in the way of promoting the speed and extent. Moreover, combined with the LED product of form a complete set of photovoltaic panels, soft hard board, soft board PCB industry are weak link in our country, such as number of vendors and yield is less, limited benefits.
And in the second quarter of this year's new products dominate the processors, although demand for loading board has the certain contribution, but dominate the processor price drop is too large, unavoidably affect loading board manufacturer delivery price, water temperature and the product is still in the test market phase, thus have rallied co., LTD.
Taken together, the domestic PCB enterprise's on the move again, the main benefit from the domestic policies of many. At present, in order to reduce the risk of inflation under the strong economic stimulus, the government's stimulus "exit strategy" has become the consensus of the governments, it's just different exit timing and scale. Therefore, for PCB enterprises rely heavily on domestic policy driven, more response to the economic situation in the face of prudence, should not be blindly optimistic.
The world economic downturn continues is providers need to calm in the face of the current growth of another important reasons. Global GDP still faces difficult situation, especially in the euro zone GDP trend after correction, the drop is increased. While as a member of the bric countries, the world is good for China's GDP expected, but the brics overall GDP trend is still frustrating, moreover, the current China is in a position of boosting the world economy, but the size of its economy is much less than that of the United States, small engine, slower to not only the speed of the world economy forward, the risk of China's economy has been a drag on the world economy.
No matter how the future China and the world economy, in the global electronic information industry under the situation of a deep recession, China's PCB enterprises usher in a new round of development opportunities is indisputable. After a year of adjustment and development, the domestic has spent the most difficult period, as the PCB enterprise, instead of spending a lot of energy to discuss and predict the future of economic environment, it is better to calm down and steadfast hard skills, physical fitness, although the old theory, which is the fundamental way to a deal with all difficulties.
PCB industry overall trend is the stronger, the strong ones evergrande. Through the crisis baptism, PCB large enterprises at home and abroad will be more competitive, this advantage in the process of economic recovery will be more obvious. At this point, if the domestic PCB enterprise also just count on the help and support of national policy, rather than focus on their own strength improvement and optimization, once the economic recovery, the comprehensive market returned to normal, the development of PCB enterprise will face greater pressure, and many in the crisis to surviving of the small and medium-sized enterprises, also unable to escape because of can not adapt to the market environment and finally disappear.
Shennan circuit by the general manager is also called for in the articles, radium PCB enterprises should borrow the current opportunity, use cost advantages to actively expand the market. After the electronics into the era of meager profit, global PCB production base from Europe and the United States, gradually to is given priority to with mainland China, Taiwan, China and South Korea in the asia-pacific region, in 2008 the outbreak of the financial crisis more accelerated the trend. And cost advantages of domestic companies have been prominent, such as can accurately seize foreign transfer list, for PCB enterprises to expand market share will be greatly helpful.
Generally speaking, for the purpose of the rescue of short-term policy, often require another round of real policy to save, to solve practical problems in view of the credit crisis in Japan in 1990 by policy in place of the lost lesson 20 years, believe that countries will continue to consider how to help from the policy to solve the problem of policy. So, PCB enterprises should also continue to focus on policy and industry development direction. Pay more attention in the subsequent development of semiconductor, consumer electronics, trends in the field of NB and photoelectric products, ready for a new round of development.
The future road, calm face.
